Chandrayaan-3, India’s Moon Lander ( US$ 75 Million), landed perfectly on the Moon in August 2023, fulfilling its mission objective. Since 2023, Russia, Japan, and one moon landing mission by the USA failed. Yesterday, February 22, 2024, the second US-based lunar lander, Odysseus (US$ 118 Million), landed on the Moon, the first by the USA since 1972. 

With a proven space program encompassing many decades and the successful moon landing (Only India, USA, and China have moon landers in place at this time), India can punch above its weight and capture a chunk of the worldwide space economy valued at US$ 500 billion as well as the emerging Lunar economy. McKinsey estimates the worldwide space economy to be worth US$ 1 Trillion by 2030. Bank of America estimates US$ 1.4 Trillion.

As in Semiconductors Initiaitve,  an investment by global funds and VC’s along with Govt of India, in the Private sector of around  US$ 10-20 Billion could give India a US$ 100-150 Billion share of the market in 2-5 years.

Other than India, China, Russia, Japan, the E.U., and the USA are in a race for more advanced moon missions, including humans landing on the Moon and setting up permanent bases. 

Let us examine a recent chronology of recent moon missions.

• Russia’s Luna 25 moon mission crashed on the Moon on August 19, 2023. 

• Japan’s Jaxa spacecraft, known as Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (Slim), touched the lunar surface on January 20, 2024, but landed on its side. Lander has been forced to power down on the Moon with its solar cells unable to catch sunlight.

• Pittsburgh, USA-based Astrobotic Technology failed in its attempt to land its Peregrine lunar lander on the Moon’s surface in January 2024 following a catastrophic fuel leak shortly after takeoff. Peregrine burned up in the atmosphere upon reentry. 

• US-based lunar lander Odysseus, or IM-1, created by Houston-based company Intuitive Machines, landed successfully on February 22, 2024. Odysseus is carrying a variety of items to the Moon. 

• China’s Chang’e-6 Lunar mission will make the first-ever attempt at collecting material from the far side of the Moon and delivering it to Earth for analysis. The launch is planned for around May 2024.

  
  

We examine four questions. The Space Economy? Lunar Economy? What are China and Russia doing? Lastly, how can India- ISRO and the private sector be substantial players in the next five years?

Space Economy

The space ecosystem has been ubiquitous for humans for many decades. It touches our everyday lives and is commercially sustainable and growing. Earlier, the sector was funded entirely by governments. That is changing; it has attracted over US$ 260 Billion from the private sector in the past ten years. Rocket launch and satellite delivery (different payloads), including for defense, have always been a geo-political necessity. However, commercial use of Space has quickly overtaken political and defense needs. Presently, 3/4th of the activity is driven by the USA and China. The following are the major components.

Space Launch Vehicles and Payload Development

Around 67 years have passed since the dawn of the space age. During this time, over 14 countries have developed space launch capabilities. The payload capacity and range of the launch vehicle may vary. Many countries have developed capabilities for developing Space Crafts to carry humans, satellites, and other payloads. The private sector, especially in the USA, like Space X, has created revolutionary launchers and provides services to NASA and others. The cost of putting a payload into orbit is coming down, and that is a significant growth driver. Costs are going down from US$ 1500 per Kg to US$ 100 per Kg. for Low Earth Orbit.

Communication

Satellites in Geo Stationary and Low Earth Orbit abound. Internet broadband, maritime, banking, stock market, corporate, entertainment data, video, and voice flow worldwide through satellite networks and ground-based stations. Life would come to a halt if the network broke down. The Sat-Com market is the most significant contributor to the space economy. Older systems such as Iridium and Inmarsat currently provide satellite communication services worldwide.

Iridium operates a constellation of LEO satellites that provide voice and data communications virtually anywhere on Earth. 

Conversely, Inmarsat operates a mix of geostationary (GEO) and LEO satellites that offer global mobile satellite communication services. They provide services to maritime, aviation, government, and enterprise markets. 

The U.N. estimated that only 54% of the world has access to the Internet, with 86% of consumers in the developed world. Developments in Satellite Broadband shall allow access to this vast market at affordable rates.

In the recent past, mega-constellations have been announced. Space X has launched the Starlink Satelite Network, comprising 5300 satellites, which is planned to increase to 12000. Amazon is launching the Kuiper network of 32366 satellites, and Eutelsat and OneWeb have merged to provide a constellation of 630 GEO and LEO satellites. China has announced China Satnet – Guo Wang ( 12992 satellites).

Earth Observation segment

Thousands of satellites are monitoring various features of the world using Remote Sensing sensors, which capture data across multiple parts of the electromagnetic spectrum. The geospatial market maps the Earth for surveys, cartography, and mapping. Others monitor various environmental movements off oceans, water bodies, and glaciers, while weather satellites measure scores of variables at high resolution for information and prediction. For climate change alone, 54 essential climate variables are monitored. They monitor agricultural produce, quality and disease issues, fisheries, forest and urban sprawls, mineral exploration, and endless applications. Satellite companies collect data, which is beamed down, processed, and sold to various users. A recent study by the U.N. found that space technology is highly dependent on meeting 40% of the SDG Goals set for 2030. 

While most satellites look upon the Earth, there are satellites tracking tens of thousands of asteroids, one of which could pose a danger to Earth. 

GNSS- Global Navigation Satellite System

GPS technology initiative was launched in 1973 by the USA. We also have systems from the USA- GPS, Europe- Galielio, Russia – GLONASS, China – Beidou, and India’s – NavIC (in infancy, available anywhere in India and 1500 km beyond India’s territorial boundary). Initially developed for defense positioning and navigation, GNSS technology has gone mainstream as the USA transmits data to improve positioning accuracy. GPS accuracy in static dGPS mode can be at the mm level, in mobile dGPS mode at the cm level, and around 5-9 meters in portable mode. The opening of accurate GPS technology in 2020 and ensuring it is free has created a U.S. GPS ecosystem worth US$ 1.4 trillion. 

Space Exploration

Many space probes have been launched to various parts of the solar system and beyond to gather scientific information. This activity continues to be funded by the government. Then, there are satellites such as the James Webb Space Telescope, successor to the Hubble Telescope, which studies various galaxies and early events in the formation of the Universe. The value of knowledge gained cannot be measured.

Production of specialized material in Zero Gravity

Zero gravity is needed to produce specialized material. Companies can specialize in producing Optical fibers, Crystals, Semiconductors, Alloys, and Bio-Medical materials that can be made in Space.

Lunar Economy

There is currently a geostrategic race by world powers to set up orbital and lunar ground-based stations on the Moon. A UN-supported ‘Outer Space Treaty’ was signed by most countries in 1967. It ensured that Space would not be used for military purposes and all countries would have equal territorial rights.

Things have changed; world powers have realized that the Moon has 

as much as 600 million metric tons of ice concentrated on the South Pole. Water, when broken down, releases Hydrogen and Oxygen. The building blocks to sustain life are available. Hydrogen and Oxygen can also be rocket propellants for missions to Earth, Mars, and beyond. Low gravity on the Moon ensures rockets can travel further with less fuel. Further exploration to Mars and onwards makes the Moon an ideal launch point.

In addition, CO2 and Helium 3 have been discovered. CO2 can be used with Hydrogen to create Methane, a fuel gas, and Helium 3 can generate electric power using Fusion energy. There is also substantial potential for solar power generation.

The Moon also has voluminous Lunar Tubes or Tunnels, which can provide habitation.

MINING

The Moon has been hit by space objects for millions of years and is covered with moondust called Regolith. It is estimated that there are substantial minerals, including Rare Earth, on the Moon. Rare earths are needed for electronics, batteries, and various futuristic supplies.

Presently, China controls a majority of Rare Earths on Earth. Extraction and mining initiatives from the lunar Regolith shall comprise robotic equipment and processes to break down, process, and transport mineral end products to the Earth. The exploitation of in-situ resources, including mining and extracting resources, manufacturing products, building infrastructure, as well as exporting goods and materials – for scientific purposes to support human presence or as a commercial

activities in the medium and long term.These activities, almost identical in nature

to their terrestrial counterparts, are the basic building blocks of establishing a self-sufficient lunar economy. On a different note, there is an asteroid called 16Psyche between Mars and Jupiter. Scientists say it has enough gold to enrich every human by US$ 1.5 Billion! Of course, the price of gold will collapse. 

Radio Astronomy, Tourism, and other opportunities

The dark side of the Moon is free from any artificial radio noise. It can be an ideal place for large radio telescopes to study the Universe. Lunar Tourism may be an opportunity. There are several such ideas which will fructify later.

What is the size of the Lunar Economy?

It is imprudent to make market projections for the Lunar Economy today; however, a report by PWC estimates the market size in 2040 to be US$ 63 Billion. 

Christopher Columbus did not give a business proposal to Queen Isabella of Spain in 1492 when he got funding to go and explore the Indies. Spain became extremely rich for two centuries as money flowed from the Americas. The USSR would never have dreamed of the space economy when Sputnik was launched in 1957. Lunar Missions shall bring several Black Swan events which will surprise us and change human endeavor in the next 20-30 years? We have to wait and watch.

What is the world doing about this opportunity?

Quite a lot.

Starting with the USA, they launched the Artemis Program and the Artemis Accord 2000, defining a long-term vision for the exploration and exploitation of commercial opportunities for Lunar. 

Russia and China have not signed the Artemis Accord. They have plans of their own which will, in all probability and under the present circumstances, put the Western world and them at loggerheads. 

India has signed the Artemis Accord along with about 33 other countries. 

NASA has built a coalition of partnerships with nations to get to the Moon quickly and sustainably. Under Artemis, the USA and its partners will return to the Moon robotically in 2024, send astronauts to the surface by 2026, and build a long-term presence on the Moon by the decade’s end. Artemis will also be the Gateway to reach Mars and beyond.

Canadian Space Agency (CSA) has committed to providing advanced robotics for the Gateway, and ESA (European Space Agency) plans to give the International Habitat (IHab) and the ESPRIT module, which will deliver additional communications capabilities, a science airlock for deploying science payloads and CubeSats, and refueling of the Gateway. The Japan Aerospace Exploration (JAXA) plans to contribute habitation components and logistics resupply. NASA is partnering with the United Arab Emirates, the Mohammed bin Rashid Space Centre, which will provide an airlock module for Gateway, allowing crew and science research transfers.

In brief, Space X is building the launch vehicle, which has a large payload capacity and is reusable.

A spacecraft named Orion is being developed by NASA with Lockheed Martin. Orion is designed to carry astronauts into Space, including the Moon and Mars, on the back of the launch vehicle. It will take humans from Earth to the Moon and back. Later, it shall also move between the Moon and Mars.

Orion features life support systems, navigation, radiation, and heat shieldings. Orion shall dock with a gateway orbiting the Moon.

The third part is the Moon lander, transporting humans from the Gateway/Orion to the Moon and back.

Lastly, Artemis Base Camp will be the foothold on the lunar frontier. The three proposed primary mission elements of Artemis Base Camp are the Lunar Terrain Vehicle (unpressurized rover) to transport suited astronauts around the site; the habitable mobility platform (pressurized rover) that can enable long-duration trips away from Artemis Base Camp and the foundation surface habitat that will accommodate four crew on the lunar surface and anchor Artemis Base Camp and the U.S. presence at the South Pole. 

NASA also established the Commercial Lunar Payload Services, or CLPS initiative, encouraging the U.S. commercial space industry to introduce new lander technologies to deliver NASA and commercial payloads to the surface of the Moon.

It has earmarked funding for contracts, for which 14 American companies have been selected to bid for contracts, including Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, Elon Musk’s SpaceX, and Lockheed Martin Space.

China and Russia

China and Russia have been working on lunar exploration projects and have announced plans to build a Moon base. In 2021, the two countries invited other nations and international organizations to join their International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) project, which is being developed as an alternative to the American Artemis Program. Pakistan and Belarus are the only countries signed up as of 2023.

The ILRS project aims to establish a long-term human presence on the Moon, with initial plans to build a research station on the lunar surface by 2035. 

The goal is to promote international cooperation in lunar exploration and utilizing the Moon’s resources for the benefit of all humanity. 

Both China and Russia also want humans to land on the Moon sometime in the next five years. 

Russia has another initiative called Luna 27, a planned lunar lander mission by the Russian space agency, Roscosmos, in collaboration with the European Space Agency (ESA). The mission’s primary goal is to study the composition of the lunar soil near the South Pole.

Under the present circumstances, trade war between the USA and China, the Taiwan war threat, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is becoming a massive drain of resources on the USA and Europe, there is very little chance of cooperation between USA+ Europe with China+ Russia. 

Recently, China and Russia tested ASAT anti-satellite weapons in outer Space on their older satellites, causing global concerns. 

India

There is little information in the public domain of a concrete plan for India’s. ISRO     (Indian Space Research Organisation) has deep domain expertise in launch vehicles, payload design, satellite launch, telemetry, and data analysis. There are scores of areas where it brings value to the table.

A fledgling and aggressive private sector Space Industry ecosystem also exists. Indian companies are already making components for Boeing, Airbus, and other aerospace companies.

The Govt of India should set up a fund to provide subsidies and go to market money to ISRO and private Indian companies to grab a more significant share of the Space and Lunar Economy. 

As in Semiconductors, allocation of patient capital of US$ 10-20 Billion dollars could give India at least US$ 100-150 Billion revenue share in the Space economy in 2-5 years. India has a better chance of success in Space compared to Semiconductors. 

India’s space research budget for the year 2024 is ₹7,314 crore, is woefully short (approximately $1.1 billion). Despite this, ISRO has been able to achieve miracles. Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) is working on various missions and projects, such as developing the Gaganyaan human spaceflight program, the Chandrayaan-3 lunar lander mission, and the Aditya-L1 solar observatory.

ISRO and its ecosystem need a big shot in the arm and an aggressive go-to-market with the private sector.  

The USA, Europe, Japan, and Artemis project in particular, and the Space industry generally cannot afford to keep India on the sidelines. India brings value and a geostrategic advantage, which diplomacy can bring to fruition. A proactive and aggressive approach by the Government of India is needed now.

Conclusion

These opportunities include the potential for deeper space exploration to other planets, which could have far-reaching implications for humanity.

Terrestrial industries such as mining, automotive, and construction, which have nascent connections to space technologies, could become driving forces in the lunar economy. As of today, many private companies are well-positioned to offer transportation, data, or in-situ technologies, creating new industries and markets in the process. 

The growth of the lunar economy is bound to face numerous challenges. The intricate network of international relations and political agendas will undoubtedly play a significant role in the development of the lunar economy. The Moon’s potential offers undeniable strategic and nationalistic opportunities, which the superpowers on Earth will relentlessly seek to exploit. Western countries will be at loggerheads with China and Russia’s joint initiatives to develop the lunar economy.

The long-term objectives of the Western world conflict are incompatible with China and Russia’s joint efforts.

The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 is not relevant anymore and will be a central conflict point in the Lunar economy.