Our knowledge, decisions, and actions regarding the Anthropocene will directly impact our lives. This is more crucial than current world events, politics, the economy, entertainment, or social media, which tend to dominate our attention.

There is a direct correlation between the availability of energy plus information and the growth in the human population, health, life span,  material and economic wealth. This is the foundation of the Anthropocene.

The Anthropocene is a broad social and scientific concept that marks Earth’s history from an earth system, humanity, social, economic, and political perspective. Human activities, especially in the last 250 years, have become the dominant force shaping the planet’s ecosystems.

While the Anthropocene has benefitted humanity as a whole tectonically on the other hand, human influence on the biosphere and atmosphere has led to deforestation, biodiversity loss, environmental damage, climate change, and ocean acidification. Earth’s geology is altered through mining, quarrying, urbanization, and large-scale infrastructure projects. The global spread of man-made materials, microplastics, and nondegradable chemical-nuclear material is now found in almost all environments.

For most humanity, life has improved considerably compared to the 1800s or 1900s, but there is still vast inequity. About 50 % of the earth’s population still needs better nutrition, health, education, and economic opportunities, essential for survival.

Scientists who study Earth Systems have warned for about twenty years that humans have caused permanent changes to the planet with long-term adverse consequences. We live in a geological epoch called the Holocene, which started about 11,500 years ago after a long ice age. Present human life has been possible because of the moderate climate conditions of the Holocene. Scientists approached the International Commission on Stratigraphy to recognize the Anthropocene as the new geological epoch.

The Earth we see today evolved from a ball of cosmic matter; its geological stratigraphy has traditionally been used to measure various stages in its history. The International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS), a body of geologists, is responsible for finalizing these timelines. After 15 years of deliberations, in March 2024, the ICS voted against recognizing the Anthropocene as a geological epoch.

However, the Anthropocene defines a new epoch for most scientists and intellectuals in science, arts, humanities, social, political, and other areas.

The increasing availability of fossil fuel energy and information has enabled the Anthropocene. It is not just about climate change. Increasing energy consumption imbalances have increased global inequalities, creating wealthy and powerful nations and corporations whose objectives conflict with a significant part of humanity.

To understand the Anthropocene, let’s journey from the formation of the universe, solar system, and Earth to the emergence of life and how we got here.

Humans are weak, sometimes irrational, innovative creatures with considerable hope and optimism for the future. Now that we understand the problems, course correction may take another 25-100 years. The Anthropocene could become the Golden Age of human civilization.

We associate the actions of leaders as the drivers of change. Historically, it is the random and unconnected actions of individuals that create change for the better. As individuals become aware of the positives and negatives of the Anthropocene, they will drive the change.

Will humans be around for another million years?

Yes, leading more fulfilling lives as Sapiens Ver 2.

Background

Let us do a thought experiment.

An average human is a 100-watt machine. The human brain consumes about 20 watts, while the torso, which houses respiratory, digestive, and other systems and connects our limbs, consumes 80 watts. The torso provides 20 watts of energy to the brain; otherwise, we would be dead.

An adult’s brain is just 1.4 kg of soft, jelly-like substance with a pinkish-gray color. The human brain consumes more than ten times more energy per kg than the human torso!

A ceiling fan or an average LED television consumes about 100 watts each. An electric kettle or a toaster uses 1000 watts of energy each.

A horse is a 900-watt machine.

Imagine you are a young single IT professional working from home in India while going to the office twice a week. You also travel abroad at least once a month. You earn about US$1500 a month, putting you among the country’s top 2 %—4 % earners.

You use a company laptop that consumes 60 watts of power. Additionally, you have a personal desktop PC for other tasks, including learning and research for office work, which consumes 100 watts of power. You use a smartphone that consumes 8 watts of power, an internet broadband modem, and a Wi-Fi router that consumes 10 watts of power each. The server you are logged into consumes a lot of energy, and your share of the consumption is around 12 watts.

Apart from these electronic devices, you also need lighting, a fan, and a small air conditioning unit, which consumes approximately 1000 watts of power.

You use a small vehicle with a 50-100 horsepower engine to commute to work, which consumes around 45,000-90,000 watts.

Your 20-watt brain connects to devices that consume 200 watts of energy, giving you superpowers. Additionally, you consume 1000 watts of power for light and air conditioning.

Now you have become a 1300-watt machine. However, remember the energy consumption of your vehicle, foreign travel, home-delivered food, laundry services, gadgets, water supply, support, and building infrastructure. If we consider those, you could become a 5000-10,000-watt machine.

You reside in an apartment constructed using cement, steel, aluminum, glass, copper, plastics, and various man-made chemicals and materials. Your computer systems and gadgets use materials such as titanium, silicon quartz, lithium, cobalt, rare earth, and gold. All these materials come from various parts of the world, are manufactured into sub-systems, are assembled in different countries, and eventually arrive at your apartment. The bottle of white wine and smoked salmon you had for dinner came from Australia and Norway. It was transported via refrigerated cold chains before being delivered. For now, we shall ignore the energy used to produce these materials.

You are a 100-watt human who needs 50 times more energy and access to information to be productive.

Life, however, could be better. The Universe has infinite energy and information; we need to tap into it and have a better life.

Let us consider a manual laborer who works in a village field just 50 kilometers away. He is lucky to earn US$200 monthly (the average monthly per capita in India), which is 13% of your salary. Had he lived in his native village, he would have earned half of what he is getting now. He lives in a mud and brick hut and uses firewood for cooking. His only light source is an electric bulb, which makes him a 150-watt machine ( 3% of your energy).

Agricultural laborers produce low-cost food essential for human survival; benign climatic conditions are necessary for his and your survival.

20% of the world’s population comprises affluent and influential human-machine systems, 30 % are on track from low-income to middle-income, while the remaining 50% are trying to get out of poverty or lower income brackets.

Unfortunately, the actions of influential human-machine systems pose a vicarious and parasitic threat to the sustainable human livelihood of others due to anthropogenic changes. This highlights the profound disconnect and lack of empathy pervasive in our world. With more wisdom, this can be corrected.

Welcome to the Anthropocene.

Let us examine how we got here and then discuss the Anthropocene.

It has taken an endless chain of unconnected trillions upon trillions of events to occur in the correct sequence and time over the last 13.8 billion years in the Universe for 8 billion of us to be here as the most powerful life form known. We are extremely lucky!

We have great potential to do better for the earth.

The Universe, Solar System, and Earth

The Universe came into existence 13.8 billion years ago due to a massive explosion known as the Big Bang. The blast released enormous energy from a point much smaller than an atom, and within 10’s of seconds, this energy spread across billions of kilometers throughout the universe. Over time, this energy transformed into Gravity, electromagnetic force, and strong and weak nuclear forces.

After many hundred million years, the galaxies and stars started appearing.

After the Big Bang, matter emerged in various structures and patterns. This matter included protons, neutrons, electrons, antiparticles, quarks, and neutrinos. Within a few minutes, vast amounts of energy fused these building blocks to form hydrogen and helium atoms. As a result, 3/4th of the universe is made up of hydrogen, and most of the rest is helium. The rest were minimal traces of lithium and beryllium. With gravity, vast physical and thermal pressure on sub-atomic particles, new elements and molecules emerged. Today, there are over 90 elements in the periodic table and millions of chemical molecules.

Atoms and Molecules in dust clouds in space provided the building blocks for new astronomical objects, planets, moons, asteroids, etc.

4.6 billion years ago, a supernova explosion released a massive cloud of gas and dust, which became our Sun. The increasing pressure on hydrogen and helium triggered a nuclear fusion reaction in its core, releasing tremendous energy.

Matter came together in different orbits around the sun to form larger objects, including meteors and asteroids. They collided and merged, resulting in the generation of planets within about 50 million years.

Earth started forming about 4.6 billion years ago due to gravitational forces attracting cosmic matter. While constantly colliding with astronomical bodies, it increased its mass, and with the presence of radioactive elements, the young earth melted into a gluey sludge.

Water and the atmosphere came to Earth around 4.4 billion years ago. Numerous objects, including asteroids and comets, bombarded the Earth from space. These celestial bodies contained significant amounts of water, ice, nitrogen, carbon dioxide, and sulfur dioxide. When they collided with the young Earth, the water and gas from these icy bodies vaporized due to the intense heat generated by the impact. Over time, as the Earth’s surface cooled, the water vapor condensed and formed oceans, lakes, and rivers. The gases formed the atmosphere.

At that time, Nitrogen and carbon dioxide were the primary gases in the atmosphere.

Earth’s atmosphere today primarily comprises nitrogen (about 78%) and oxygen (about 21%). The remaining 1% contains trace gases, including argon, carbon dioxide, neon, helium, methane, krypton, hydrogen, and ozone. Water vapor also varies in concentration depending on location, weather conditions, and altitude, typically ranging from about 0.1% to 4% of the atmosphere’s composition.

Overall, the composition of Earth’s atmosphere is relatively stable and supports life as we know it, providing the necessary gases for respiration, photosynthesis, and various atmospheric processes. CO2 is around 440 ppm ( parts per million of the atmosphere), and with Methane threatens the planet due to climate warming. The  CO2 level was just 280 ppm in 1800 CE.

LIFE

Life emerged on Earth due to a complex mixture of chemicals, abundant free energy, water and liquids, and a suitable atmosphere. These factors allowed for the creation of new molecules that facilitated the formation of life. All that was needed was activation energy, which could have been provided by lightning during a storm. The first organisms, bacteria, were formed 3.5 billion years ago.

These organisms began to use the sun’s energy. Over time, some evolved into cyanobacteria and utilized water and carbon dioxide. The oxygen from the water molecule was released as a byproduct.

The released oxygen reacted with various elements in a process known as oxidation, creating many minerals. Later, around 2.4 billion years ago, the amount of atmospheric oxygen began to increase rapidly. Oxygen atoms combined to form the Ozone layer, which shielded the planet from harmful UV rays. This allowed for the formation of life on Earth.

As oxygen levels increased and CO2 levels fell, it was a death knell for most organisms for whom oxygen was poisonous. On the other hand with the reduction of CO2, the earth’s temperature started falling. As a result, most of the planet was covered with ice from 2.35 to 2.22 billion years ago.

Biologists have classified living organisms into two categories.

Prokaryotes are single-celled organisms whose genetic material is not protected within a nucleus. These include Eubacteria and Archaea.

Eukarya: This includes Animals, Fungi, and Plants. A membrane protects the nucleus. They can be single or multicelled.

Prokaryotes emerged about 3.5 Billion years ago, as discussed earlier.

About 1.8 billion years ago, Eukarya came into existence. Their cells could use oxygen to generate energy through a process called respiration. During respiration, oxygen helps break down carbohydrates, releasing CO2, water, and energy. Oxygen enables cells to extract energy from food molecules ten times more efficiently than other processes. With this excess energy, the population of these cells increased thousands of times.

Most life forms were developed in the Proterozoic Eon, which ended about 600 million years ago. The Ediacaran Period, the last part of the Eon, lasted from 635 to 541 million years ago. This period saw the initial emergence of multi-celled organisms.

During this period, plants that were dependent on photosynthesis came into being. Fungi, which could scavenge decomposing organic material, emerged. The larger organisms in the Ediacaran were soft-bodied, like jellyfish and sea anemones.

The Cambrian Period, which followed 540 million years ago, was the starting point of big life that has lasted till now. All major groups of large organisms existing today, including vertebrates, made their first appearance in just 10 million years in the Cambrian period. Large plants and animals started moving to land 450 million years ago.

During the Permian period, as oxygen levels increased to between 17% and 30%, mega insects and vertebrates appeared on Earth. In the Carboniferous period, about 320 million years ago, reptiles first appeared. Later on, during the Triassic period (250 to 200 million years ago), enormous dinosaurs emerged. Around 200-150 million years ago, the first birds evolved during the late Jurassic period.

Mammals appeared after the Permian extinction. For about 200 million years, most mammals had been small burrowing creatures like modern rodents.

However, for survival and with a bit of luck, their neurons started developing deeper to interact with their sensor and motor cells. As complexity increased, the neurons gathered together to form the brain. This led to the growth of the cortex.

Sixty-five million years ago, a 10-15 km wide asteroid moving at thirty km a second hit Earth in Mexico. There was widespread devastation extending hundreds of kilometers. Soot clouds obstructed sunlight, plunging the earth’s surface into total darkness for a year or two. The biosphere would require thousands of years to recover to its previous state.

Dinosaurs, and half of all plants and animals, became extinct. Luckily, smaller organisms, including mammals, survived. Within half a million years, mammals came back extensively and diversely. Mammals included tree-dwelling, fruit-eating primates, our ancestors.

Humans are part of the Mammalian order Primates, which comprise lemurs, monkeys, and great apes. We belong to the group of tailless primates—the apes.

Apes evolved thirty million years ago in Africa and Eurasia. They include orangutans, gorillas, and chimpanzees. Humans and apes have shared a common ancestor for about 8 million years. Chimps and humans shared a common ancestor till about 6-7 million years ago.

All species of humans are referred to as Hominins. Remains of over 30 Hominins have been discovered. Just 30,000 years ago, various Hominin species roamed Africa and Eurasia. Neanderthals (one species) were first found in Germany, and Homo Erectus (another species) was discovered in Java.

Even the earliest Hominin species walked on two legs. How and why that happened is still a mystery. This required restructuring of the back, the hips, and the brain. Bipedalism allowed travel across vast areas while freeing up hands for various tasks.

By 2 million years, we discover more Hominin species with bigger brains and the ability to make rudimentary stone tools and exploit various environments. These were classified as Homo Erectus and Homo Ergaster.

By 600,000 years ago, evolution accelerated. New species similar to present-day humans appeared with larger brains. Homo Sapiens appeared about 200,000 years ago in Africa.

Why do we not see the other Hominid species around? They started dying because of an evolutionary mechanism called competitive exclusion. This explains why two species can never share the same niche. Homo Sapiens were able to drive out all other Hominins, including our closest relatives, the Neanderthals.  

A hundred thousand years ago, most humans lived in Africa. Climate change, technological and ecological knowledge accumulation, conflicts with neighbors, and many other reasons resulted in migration from Africa.

Humans moved to the Middle East and even interbred with Neanderthals. Some moved east to Central and South Asia. Humans settled in Asia for a long time and moved to Australia.

Humans also migrated to Northern Europe and Siberia 40,000 years ago. They moved to Northern America via Alaska more than 20,000 years ago, eventually reaching South America.

Development of the Human Brain

The Neocortex of Primates is about 50% of the size of the brain. As humans evolved, the Neocortex increased to about 80%. Humans have over 15 billion neurons and trillions of connections.

Humans needed powerful brains to manage their dextrous hands and feet. Dextrous hands allowed humans to create tools and weapons and use hands for so many functions. Powerful feet enabled humans to travel over vast swathes of land. Humans lived in hostile environments and needed powerful image processing power, which in turn required immense brain power.

Humans lived in groups for protection, and collaboration helped in various activities such as hunting. Living with other humans required developing social skills, managing emotions, and being aware of others’ feelings and social norms. This was a lot of complex data to handle, leading to self-awareness and consciousness.

As the human brain developed, so did innovation in exploiting the environment. The development of advanced hunting tools gave access to more animal flesh and provided more energy. Fire allowed food to be cooked, saving time in chewing and digesting. This time was spent on other innovative tasks.

As humans lived in groups of 50 or more, they started communicating with each other, exchanging information on plants, animals, climate, geography, and so on. They also shared stories and rituals. The brain accumulated all this knowledge, and as the knowledge base increased, so did innovation.

Collaboration between humans increased further. Stories were swapped, rituals and gifts exchanged, and marriage partners moved from one group to another. Individual information and knowledge were shared and accumulated collectively, leading to a Cumulative Cultural Evolution.

A significant milestone was the development of language. It is unclear how we developed linguistics. It may have started with the development of some words, and the brain would have developed the power to create grammar. As per the renowned linguist Noam Chomsky, the human brain has a built-in system for grammar. The need to collaborate and the increasing sociability of humans have been a driver in language development.

Farming

The Neolithic period, also known as the New Stone Age, was a significant stage in human prehistory characterized by the development of agriculture, settlement in permanent villages, the emergence of pottery, and the refinement of stone tools.

The Neolithic period is typically associated with transitioning from hunter-gatherer societies to agricultural communities. This transition occurred independently in various world regions over several millennia, beginning around 12,000 to 10,000 years ago and lasting until around 4,500 to 2,000 years ago, depending on the area.

Farming was a revolution commencing about 10,000 years ago. It started as fire-stick farming when humans set fire to large tracts of land. In return, they got cooked animals, and the ash acted as fertilizer, resulting in further vegetation and attracting animals to hunt. After the last ice age ( 11,500 years ago), as the climate became warmer and wetter, conditions for agriculture became ripe. Over time, farmers discovered plants such as wheat and rice. Farming gave access to abundant food that could be consumed and stored for a long time.

Humans started domesticating animals: cows, sheep, goats, horses, and dogs. These animals provided milk and meat and the ability to work in agriculture and transportation.

Farming villages were independent communities during the first half of the agricultural era. Over time, they interacted, exchanging goods, resources, information, and technology, creating a critical mass of people and an agrarian civilization.

As the network of villages expanded and larger villages transformed into towns, relationships between families inter se and others changed. With agriculture, this resulted in surplus wealth. Complex societies needed management of people and resources and protection from invasion. Land disputes, damages to goods and property, quarrels, and inheritance issues started.

This led to the emergence of leaders and, ultimately, classes and clans based on the roles of individuals in a new social hierarchy. Power went into the hands of a small minority who assumed the role of leaders and rulers. Another powerful community were the priests, who gave legitimacy to rulers and appeased the gods to protect people from disease, famine, and natural disasters. Most major world religions, as well as local religious traditions, emerged during the agricultural period. Rulers and priests worked together to generate support for a system from which both benefitted.

Enforcement of law and order, collection of taxes, settlement of disputes, construction of roads and public buildings, maintenance of armies, and funding the extravagant life of rulers used up a lot of the surplus wealth.

As technology advanced, surplus people took up new vocations and became specialists such as potters, metal smiths, tax collectors, scribes, soldiers, and courtiers.

The exchange of agricultural produce, pottery, metal tools, weapons, and services led to the development of currency coins and a system to record transactions.

States appeared independently in agrarian societies in various parts of the world.

The availability of more energy and resources in the agricultural period led to rising populations. From ten to two thousand years ago, the human population increased by 40 times. By two thousand years ago, humans consumed 70 times the energy they consumed at the end of the last Ice Age.

Despite this bonanza, the elite group controlled a majority of the wealth. 1% of the population owned about 70% of the wealth, while 10% owned about 90%.

By 1400 CE, the world population had increased to 500 million. There was growing pressure for land and natural resources and the opportunity to trade in man-made goods.

Cities stretched from the Atlantic Ocean, both sides of the Mediterranean, Persia, parts of Central Asia, India, Southeast Asia, and China. The Silk Road and the maritime routes of the Indian Ocean stretching to the Middle East and beyond were buzzing with trade. Large empires existed in China, India, and Turkey. Most of Europe lay far away from the rich stream of trade and wealth that flowed through its East.

In the late 15th century, Christopher Columbus and Vasco Da Gama reached the Americas and India. There would be a massive flow of natural resources, diverse agricultural products, animals, goods, people, religion, information, knowledge, and various diseases between different parts of the world. However, the majority of wealth would flow to Europe. European rulers and traders used their knowledge of shipbuilding, navigation, and information from various parts of the world to increase trade and colonize a large part of the planet.

Till this time, agriculture was the primary vocation. From the 15th to mid-20th century, sea-faring countries with armies flourished by colonizing South America, Africa, and Asia. This wealth created a renaissance in the West in arts, architecture, better living standards, education, and the formalization and acceptance of science and technology.

This led to the Age of Reason.

The publication of Isaac Newton’s Principia Mathematica in 1688 marked the beginning of the Age of Enlightenment, also known as the Age of Reason. During this time, the heliocentric view of Copernicus and Galileo became widely accepted, and science and technology took precedence over old dogmas and superstitions. The Age of Enlightenment emerged as a time of progress, free from the constraints of the Vatican.

From the agricultural revolution to the 17th century, the availability of wood-based fire and harnessing the sun’s energy were responsible for human development. This would change significantly.

Fossil Fuels

Billions of tonnes of coal, oil, and gas have been buried in the earth’s crust for hundreds of millions of years. While coal was discovered during the agricultural period, most people preferred wood for heat energy.

By 1700 CE, coal met 50 % of England’s energy needs. However, coal mines were prone to flooding, making it difficult and expensive to pump water. Steam engine-based pumps were installed, but they, too, were inefficient and costly.

James Watt, an engineer, designed and built an improved steam engine by 1776. This would change human life by ushering in the Industrial Revolution. Within a few years, steam engines were powering textile and steel mills, locomotives, and ships. Mill productivity increased manifold while the time and cost of transportation were reduced. As products became cheaper and easier to get, demand increased.

In 1820, Michael Faraday discovered the science of electricity generation. In 40 years, electricity was being used on a commercial scale in the developed world. Fossil fuels, coal, and natural gas are primary energy sources for electricity production.

Electricity, in turn, was responsible for the telegraph, telephone, and radio communication. Information could be shared in real-time across most of the world.

In the late 19th century, internal combustion engines were invented in Germany and later in Europe and America, reducing transportation costs and the freedom to travel independently in areas without a rail network. Internal combustion engines use petroleum, a fossil fuel.

In the early 20th century, oil and gas were used to manufacture various petrochemicals, plastics, and other derivatives.

The Haber – Bosch process was developed in the early 20th century. It uses fossil fuels to create artificial fertilizers using nitrogen from the air and hydrogen from fossil fuels. The creation of synthetic fertilizer has made it possible for humans to sustain the eight billion people who populate the planet today. It is a truism that had there been no artificial fertilizer, half the world would have gone hungry.

Cement, steel, aluminum, plastics, fertilizer, copper, and many other materials have become essential building blocks in the modern world. All rely on fossil fuels.

Energy + Information- Drivers of Human Growth and Creation of the Anthropocene

In 200 million years, a relatively feeble mammal has evolved into Homo Sapiens. Despite lacking the physical power of creatures such as the elephant, the flying power of the falcon, and the resilience of crocodiles, humans have managed to dominate the world.

Humans have learned how to harness energy and information effectively. More energy and information can drive further growth for humanity.

Energy Consumption of Humans.

Understanding our current energy consumption and the sources we rely on is crucial. It allows us to forecast the energy we will need in the future, such as in 2050.

Data used in this Article is from the BP Energy Outlook 2023 and various reports published by the International Energy Association (IEA).

The values provided are in Exajoules. One Exajoule is equivalent to 10 raised to the power of 18 joules, also known as a quintillion. To put this amount in perspective, one Exajoule equals 23,000 nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima. One joule equals 1 watt multiplied by the number of seconds of energy used.

Present Global Energy Consumption as per BP is about 640 EJ.

Fossil Fuels contribute 480 EJ-75%, Renewables 83 EJ-13 %, and the balance is hydro, nuclear, etc.

As per BP 2050, Global Energy Consumption will reach 750 EJ. Fossil Fuels shall contribute 438 EJ-57%, Renewables 247 EJ-33%, and the balance from hydro, nuclear, etc.

As per IEA, there are three projection scenarios. I have considered two.

The first one is called the Stated Policies Scenario—STEP, which refers to the policies stated by various countries. The second is the Net Zero Scenario—NZE, the scenario where CO2 emissions are zero.

IEA  2050 STEP Scenario. Global energy consumption would be 536 EJ, with fossil fuels contributing 296 EJ-55% and renewables supplying 227 EJ-42%.

In the STEP scenario, CO2 emissions will decrease from 37 to 29 billion mt.

IEA 2050 NZE Scenario, the Global Energy Consumption would be   385 EJ, with Fossil fuels contributing 63 EJ-16 %. The balance will primarily be renewables, contributing about 300 EJ-77%.

CO2 emissions shall go down to “0” under the NZE scenario.

This is needed to maintain the increase in temperature between 1.5 and 2 degrees compared to pre-industrial revolution levels.

The Earth’s population is projected to rise to 10 billion by 2050. It is difficult to understand how humanity can move from the BP 2050 projection of 750 EJ to the IEA 2050 NZE projection of 385 EJ—a reduction of 48 % with an increased population of 25 % and hopefully more progress in the Global South.

Note: BP has taken the present energy consumption as 640 EJ, compared to IEA, which brings it to 442 EJ. The difference is probably because of Primary Energy and Secondary Energy. Electricity is secondary energy produced primarily from fossil fuels or Renewables. IEA has taken the total Energy Available at 632 EJ. So, there is a possible reconciliation.

IEA has made many assumptions for both the STEP and NZE scenarios. I recommend reading Nett Zero by 2050 and Global Energy Outlook 2023 from the IEA website for a deeper understanding. The BP Energy Outlook 2023 is available at BP.com.

According to experts and the progress made, achieving the IEA-NZE scenario is extremely difficult. Investment figures ranging from US$3 to 6 trillion annually up to 2050 are envisaged for this scenario. That amounts to at least 75 to 150 trillion dollars, with a majority coming from OECD nations, China and India for Climate Change alone. Global GDP at present is  US$134 trillion.

BP, IEA, and so many Western bodies have made three collective fallacies reinforced by the media over decades.

One fallacy is that energy sources are either fossil fuels or renewables. They have ignored Small Nuclear and  Fusion energy, which will now be available in the mainstream in the next 15-20 years. Humanity will find ways to increase abundant, cheap, and clean energy availability.

The second fallacy is that most of the Global South will not move from poverty or low-middle-income to middle-income and affluence in the next twenty-five years.

The third fallacy is that climate change will unleash many problems by increasing the temperature from 1.5 degrees to 2 degrees centigrade. The earth has many self-balancing systems; drastic climate change has been experienced before. In the Eocene epoch, 56 to 34 million years ago, the CO2 levels ranged from 1000-2000 ppm. The earth was warmer by 10 to 15 degrees centigrade compared to an average global temperature of 15 degrees Celsius today. This was the period when Primates existed.

The tilt of the earth, the energy released by the sun, the heat sink of rain hitting the Himalayas, and converting CO2 to carbonates are a few of many factors that determine Climate change. Climate change is a complex subject that is part theory, part science.

For all humanity to progress, the energy consumed has to increase. It has to be clean, with more options than solar and wind renewables.

Information, Knowledge, and the Anthropocene

Energy and information are the crucial drivers for human growth. The Anthropocene would not have been possible without them. Information and Knowledge from various arenas will be responsible for remedying the ill effects of the Anthropocene and creating a meaningful and equitable life for humanity.

The Gutenberg Press (1450 CE) democratized information and knowledge.

Our Hominin ancestors were masters at learning from their environment, collecting and sharing information and knowledge. This trait has multiplied millions of times with computing and information technology.

Humanity started working on mathematics and geometry right from 5000 BC onwards. In each age, creating a computing machine was a philosophical idea. As technology improved, this idea crystallized into reality.

G W Leibniz invented the first mechanical calculator in the 17th century.

In the 19th century, Charles Babbage and Ada Lovelace designed the Analytical Engine, which could theoretically perform trigonometric and logarithmic calculations. Ada Lovelace wrote the first algorithm that could run on the Analytical Engine. This device could not be fully assembled because appropriate metalworking technology was needed. Theoretically, this was the first computer system.

In the early 1930s and 1940s of the twentieth century, Claude Shannon worked on information technology concepts and is consequently known as “ The Father of Information Technology.”

Alan Turing laid the foundations of computers and computing science in a paper published in 1936. He also designed the Turing machine in theory, which has again stood the test of time.

A significant breakthrough was the development of the transistor in 1947 at Bell Labs. This led to the development of semiconductors by Fairchild, Intel and others, which power massive computers and even small home gadgets. The latest Nvidia Blackwell Chip used for AI consumes about 1000 watts. A decent AI hardware infrastructure would use 10’s of thousands of such chips.

The components of the Internet were developed in parts by various researchers. However, the World Wide Web, the foundation of the modern-day Internet, was developed at CERN by Sir Tim Berners as late as 1989.

As the Internet and AI systems provide access to information and act as our extended intelligence, the powers of humans with access shall increase exponentially.

ANTHROPOCENE

This concept is utilized across various fields, including natural sciences, engineering, humanities, social sciences, authors, filmmakers, editors, archaeologists, artists, historians, anthropologists, geologists, and geographers. It has entered the lexicon of students and professionals and will soon be used commonly.

Ukrainian geochemist Vladimir Vernadsky (1926 CE) brought to widespread attention the idea that the biosphere, combined with human cognition, had created the Noo¨sphere (from the Greek for mind), with humans becoming a geological force.

Anthropocene was used as long ago as 1922 by Russian geologist Aleksei Pavlov. The term, however, was popularized after Dutch atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzen and US biologist Eugene Stoermer reintroduced it in 2000.

In the 1970s and 1980s, he made significant discoveries about the ozone layer and how human pollution could damage it — work that eventually earned him a share of a Nobel prize. In 2000, he and  Stoermer argued that the global population has gained so much influence over planetary processes that the current geological epoch should be called the Anthropocene.

When Crutzen proposed the term Anthropocene, he gave it the suffix appropriate for an epoch. He argued for a starting date in the late eighteenth century, at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Between then and the start of the new millennium, he noted, humans had chewed a hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica, doubled the amount of methane in the atmosphere, and driven up carbon dioxide concentrations by 30% to a level not seen in 400,000 years.

When the Anthropocene Working Group started investigating, it compiled a much longer list of the changes wrought by humans.

Earth-system scientists conceived the Anthropocene to capture the recent rupture in Earth’s history arising from the impact of human activity on the Earth system as a whole. Earth-system science takes an integrated approach. It is climate change in the atmosphere and humanity’s effect on the biosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, and cryosphere.

Human activity fuelled by fossil fuels and information has accelerated technological development, rapid human population growth, and increased resource consumption. Expansion in land use for agriculture, urbanization, canals and waterways, and other infrastructure has changed land use and biodiversity and caused irreversible pollution. Humans have also increased the use of minerals, metals, plastics, petrochemicals, and agricultural fertilizers.

The Anthropocene is a concept conceived by Environmental scientists. It has been, therefore, painted dark from their perspective. Yes, extensive environmental damage has been caused, but let us also look at the tremendous achievements of this period.

Human Progress in the Anthropocene.

Civilizational Progress

Great thinkers, philosophers, and social reformers changed human thought. Humans have created democracies for themselves with personal freedom and justice. There are problems, but we must give time for this concept to mature. Today, there are more personal liberties, freedom, and justice than before.

The Age of Universal Education and  Knowledge

Knowledge creation and accumulation in Natural Sciences, Formal Sciences, Social Sciences, Humanities, Applied Sciences, and Arts happened unprecedentedly. Access to education for the masses increased manifold. In recent decades, opportunities have emerged in fields such as Data Science, Interdisciplinary Studies, Digital Humanities, Emerging Technologies, Creative Industries, and Computational Sciences.

Agricultural Revolution

Improvements in seeds, agricultural systems, artificial fertilizers, irrigation, pesticides, and farm automation allow the earth to sustain eight billion humans.

Economic Benefits

All figures in US$ -2017

In 1700 CE, the population was 600 million, GDP was 700 billion, and the life expectancy was 25-30 years.

1800 CE, population was  1 billion, GDP was 1.2 trillion, and life expectancy was 25-30 years.

In 1900 CE, the population was 1.65 billion, GDP was 4 trillion, and life expectancy was 30-45 years.

2000 CE, the population was 6 billion, GDP was 70 trillion, and life expectancy was 40-60 years.

Today’s population is 8 billion, the GDP is around 134 trillion, and life expectancy is 60-80 years.

From the 1800s to the 1900s, most people lived in poverty. Poverty is still a significant problem; today, about 40% of people live on less than US$5 a day, 50% live on US$7 or less a day, and 85% live on less than US$30 a day.

What is Climate Change?

Climate change is caused primarily by increasing CO2 and Methane emissions in the atmosphere. These emissions are mainly due to fossil fuels, rice cultivation, and bovine emissions.

According to recent estimates from the Global Carbon Project, approximately 1,510 billion metric tons (or 1.51 trillion metric tons) of CO2 have been released into the atmosphere from the use of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and natural gas, since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in around 1800 until the present day. This substantial amount of CO2 emissions is one of the primary drivers of global climate change and has significant implications for the Earth’s ecosystems and biodiversity. Present emissions are about 37 billion metric tons per annum.

Over the last 200 years, these emissions have caused global temperatures to increase by about 1 degree centigrade. If unchecked, this trend could increase temperatures beyond the limit set by climatologists of 1.5-2 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels by 2050.

Climate change concerns were aired in a meeting held in Stockholm in 1972 to discuss environmental issues, resulting in the creation of UNEP (United Nations Environmental Program). Subsequently, the World Metrological Organisation and UNEP formed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Every year, Conference of Parties (COP) meetings on climate change are held in different countries under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The first meeting was held in 1995 in Berlin, and COP 28 was held last year in the UAE.

The Paris Agreement, also known as the Paris Climate Accord, was adopted in December 2015 during the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, France. The agreement, signed by 195 countries, aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat global climate change.

Some of the critical aspects of the Paris Agreement include:

Setting a long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming to well below two °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C by 2050


Aim to reach the global peak of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible and achieve a balance between emissions and removals in the second half of the century.


Requiring countries to submit updated national climate action plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), every five years.


Conduct regular global stocktakes to assess progress towards the agreement’s goals and accelerate action in mitigation, adaptation, and finance.

Approximately 80% of the member countries have submitted their self-declarations, called NDCs, which specify their emission targets and net-zero objectives.

These self-declarations do not carry any legal obligation. Reading through the discussions from COP 28, it is clear there is no shortage of optimism and good intentions.

Many people exposed to and susceptible to the above live in Africa and Asia.

In 2009, developed countries pledged to provide US$100 billion a year for mitigation, adaptation, loss, and damage for developing countries due to Climate change. From 2013 to 2021, yearly contributions have been from US$45 to 90 billion. This is the stark reality.

Developing countries feel the contribution should be at least US$ 1 trillion annually. 


Adverse Effects of the Anthropocene and Climate Change

Agriculture and Deforestation

Forest land has been claimed for agriculture for centuries, more so in the past two to three centuries. Since 1800 CE, we have lost 50% of forest cover.

Decline in Crop Yields. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns affect agricultural productivity, leading to declines in crop yields, food insecurity, and economic losses for farmers and producers. There are net reductions in yields of maize, rice, wheat, and potentially other cereal crops, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central and South America, and the nutritional quality of rice and wheat is reducing.

Rising temperatures are projected to adversely affect livestock, depending on the extent of changes in feed quality, the spread of diseases, and water resource availability.

Methane, a greenhouse gas, is caused by rice cultivation in Asia and the  domesticated ruminant populations.

Using fossil fuel-based fertilizers and pesticides has increased productivity; however, it has resulted in soil eroding between 17 and 57 times as fast as it can be replaced.

Rising Temperatures

Climate change has various adverse impacts, such as heatwaves, extreme heat events, and forest fires. The tundra and boreal forests in high latitudes are particularly vulnerable to damage or destruction due to climate change. The permafrost area, which ranges from 1.5 to 2.5 million km, is also at risk. If this area thaws, it could release significant amounts of CO2 and CH4 into the atmosphere.

Extreme Weather Events

Global warming intensifies and increases the frequency of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, cyclones, floods, droughts, and wildfires, significantly impacting agriculture, water resources, health, and habitation. Recently,  Pakistan suffered from acute floods in 2022, affecting 30 million people and causing a loss of US$15 billion.

Health Impacts

Global warming exacerbates health risks, including heat-related illnesses, respiratory problems from air pollution, and malnutrition due to food shortages. Risks from vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever, are projected to increase.

Water Scarcity, Dams, Irrigation Canals, and Ground Water

Changes in precipitation patterns and increased evaporation rates exacerbate water scarcity in some regions, leading to competition for limited water resources and conflicts over water access. Significant parts of the world already face acute water shortages. The Global South faces a 50 % water deficit now, while there shall be a 50% worldwide shortage by 2030.

The construction of dams, canals, and irrigation systems leads to undesirable consequences such as deforestation, loss of biodiversity, displacement of indigenous people, flooding of habitats, insufficient compensation, and inadequate employment opportunities for the displaced inhabitants. Dams and river damming ultimately result in sediment erosion, which occurs much faster (at least ten times) than natural erosion forces.

The reduced sediment flux to major deltas and increasing groundwater extraction have caused many large deltas to subside more quickly.

The use of groundwater for agriculture and urban use has depleted most aquifers.

Irrigation canals, waterbodies, and oceans receive 30-40% of leached fossil fuel-based fertilizer, resulting in algal blooms. This uses up dissolved oxygen, creating oxygen-poor ‘dead zones.’ Fishes, other aquatic creatures, and plants do not get sufficient dissolved oxygen and die out.

Industrial and Urban wastewater is flushed into water bodies without treatment, and most major rivers are polluted.

Melting Ice and Glaciers / Sea Level Rise / Ocean Acidification

Rising temperatures cause glaciers and ice caps to melt, contributing to sea level rise and altering freshwater availability in regions dependent on glacial runoff. Melting ice sheets and thermal expansion of seawater lead to rising sea levels, posing risks to coastal communities through increased flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion into freshwater sources.

The IPCC estimates that mean sea levels can rise from 0.43 to 0.76 meters this century. About 3.6 billion people live within 150 km of coastal areas. The Maldives, Bangladesh, and the Netherlands are some affected nations.

Increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere lead to higher concentrations in seawater, causing ocean acidification. This process threatens marine ecosystems, and many aquatic species will move to higher latitudes.

Biodiversity/ Species Extinction

Land-use conversion to produce food, fuel, fiber, and fodder, combined with targeted hunting and harvesting, has resulted in species extinction some 100 to 1,000 times higher than background rates and probably constitutes the beginning of the sixth mass extinction ( 75 % of remaining species) in Earth’s history in the next few centuries. Global warming also disrupts ecosystems and habitats, leading to changes in species distribution.

Fossil Fuels

Fossil fuel energy is the source of our prosperity and will continue to fuel the world economy for long.

Human actions have released 555 petagrams of carbon (where 1 Pg = 1015 g = 1 billion metric tons) to the atmosphere since 1750, increasing atmospheric CO2 to a level not seen for at least 800,000 years and possibly several million years. This has led to global warming and climate change.

Mining

Various natural resources, such as sand, gravel, coal, lignite, iron, limestone, bauxite, copper, zinc, nickel, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths, have significantly altered the land’s natural contours.

Mineral extraction alone equals the displacement of approximately 57,000 million tons annually, almost triple the current rate of sediment transportation by rivers.

Mining results in deforestation, destruction of the biosystem and biodiversity, change in the flow of natural waterways, and uprooting local people without adequate compensation and employment. Land and water pollution due to the leaching of chemicals, heavy metals, and acids causes various diseases in the local population, including cancer.

Habitat, Urbanization and Infrastructure Construction

In the 18th century, less than 10% of the population lived in cities. The world’s population is approximately 8 billion, with about 4.5 billion people living in urban areas. Out of these, 3.5 billion people are from less developed countries. The world population is projected to increase to 10 billion by 2050, and around 6.5 billion people will live in urban areas, with most of the increase occurring in less developed countries. Urban areas use about 3% of the global area.

Urbanization leads to deforestation or conversion of agricultural land. Biodiversity, land contours, watersheds, and natural water flow are affected. Resources such as cement, steel, sand, gravel, aluminum, steel, and copper are used in abundance. Infrastructure for roads, power systems, water treatment and distribution, health care, transportation, and sewage and waste management must be created.

Cities create sewage, material waste, and air and water pollution. Landfills and incinerators lead to the leaching and emissions of dangerous chemicals.

In developing and underdeveloped countries, migrants lead sub-human lives packed in slums and unauthorized areas, putting pressure on an inadequate infrastructure.

Displacement of Communities.

Rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and loss of habitable land due to desertification and degradation force communities to relocate, leading to climate-induced migration and displacement.

New Materials

The development of diverse products, including antibiotics, pesticides, plastics, industrial alloys, nuclear material, rare earths, organic gases, chemicals, chlorine, and petrochemicals, has led to widespread pollution of the environment. Recycling facilities are presently totally inadequate.

Fertilizer

The invention of the Haber–Bosch process, which uses fossil fuels to make ammonia and then urea, has allowed agricultural growth to feed at least half of mankind. However, it has altered the global nitrogen cycle so fundamentally that the nearest suggested geological comparison refers to events about 2.5 billion years ago.

Colonization / Globalization

The arrival of Europeans in the Caribbean in 1492 and the subsequent annexing of the Americas led to the most significant human population replacement in the past 13,000 years, the first global trade networks linking Europe, China, Africa, and the Americas and the resultant mixing of previously separate biotas, known as the Colombian Exchange.

One biological result of the exchange was the globalization of human foodstuffs. The cross-continental movement of viruses, microorganisms, domesticated animals, rodents, parasites, and accidental transfers have contributed to a swift, ongoing, radical reorganization of life on Earth.

Moving forward in the Anthropocene.

Metaphor for Prosperity. More Energy + Information for all.

Compared to the 1800s, when most humanity lived in poverty, the Anthropocene has given humanity nutrition, health, a longer life span, and material comforts. A fair % of the global population leads an affluent or middle-income lifestyle.

According to the World Inequality website, 10% of the world’s population owns 75% of global wealth and earns 57 % of global income, while the bottom 50 % owns 1.75% of global wealth and 7.5 % of global income. This is a disturbing figure. As the rich world gets more empowered with information and AI, this disparity can only grow.

The affluent and middle class will not reduce their energy consumption. They may become more energy efficient and use more renewables, but that will not change the lives of others.

Contrary to the UN’s and international development bodies’ underlying thought process, we need more energy and information dissemination for the bottom 50 %. The Western thought process can not be taken as a template to solve the problems of the Global South.

Emerging, developing, and underdeveloped nations need to explore innovative ways of development. The traditional Western development model was made possible by the influx of resources through colonization, resulting in the development of technology and the exploitation of natural resources from the Global South. Western nations employed their military, intellectual, and economic might to achieve prosperity backed by multinational corporations.

Climate scientists and environmentalists have let loose “Climate Change” as a giant monster; the media have amplified this for decades. It has vicariously captured the imagination of people and leaders, overclouding a holistic view considering other equally pressing problems. Taking a contrarian or even a balanced view has become difficult.

It is the contribution of the affluent; however, it is fantastical that they will invest in remedying the damage caused. Is the expenditure on Climate change of US$3-6 trillion per annum for the next 25 years justified when there are other pressing issues?

Much emphasis is being placed on Renewable Energy, which is excellent but gives intermittent power. Expensive energy storage technology is needed to run the electricity grid. Renewables still need cement, quartz sand, steel, aluminum, glass, and copper, all of which have a fossil fuel footprint.

Relatively cleaner natural gas can act as a transition fuel.

Small-scale nuclear plants, or “small modular reactors” (SMRs) provide another viable option. They are advanced atomic reactors designed to be much smaller in size and power output than traditional nuclear power plants. These smaller reactors typically have a power capacity of up to 300 megawatts per unit. SMRs are often touted as a potential solution for providing safe, clean, and affordable nuclear power, as they can be manufactured in factories and assembled on-site, reducing construction costs and timelines.

Fusion energy shall emerge as a clean and cheap source in the next 15-20 years.

Over the last 250 years, Western capitalism has created staggering complexity in human life, including economic markets, resource allocation, technology, mining, manufacturing, and global supply chains. Social and political systems have followed suit; those who have defied the Western hegemony have been sanctioned or persecuted.

On the other hand, there is the ever-present “ Resource Curse “. For example, Congo, which has the largest Cobalt reserves needed for battery technology, has virtually enslaved its people to other countries. Cobalt from Congo is used in virtually every EV battery in the world, while children are paid one US $ a day to mine in unsafe conditions. Such is the case with most resource-rich countries.

Interested Governments and Multinationals have propped up oil and gas-rich Middle Eastern kingdoms. Sham monarchs act in their interest.

Resource-rich countries need democracies, not corrupt militias or rulers.

Local people must bring in vibrant democracies to ensure their countries and people get their fair share.

The global economy is worth US$134 trillion (half of this is from OECD countries), and it is not feasible to dismantle and rebuild it from scratch. Abruptly implementing radical measures would cause chaos in worldwide political and economic systems. However, every developing country should consider its self-interest and optimize its economy accordingly.

For the West, a massive-scale transition is also necessary in various areas, including energy, land, water, urban infrastructure (such as transportation and buildings), mining, and industrial systems. Western leaders should take a holistic view of their international relations. The era of colonization and hegemony after the Second World War is over. The world is becoming multipolar, and the economic power of the West is being challenged.

To achieve a sustainable world, all nations must work together, but this seems like an unattainable goal for the next few decades until a calamity shakes the earth. Expectations of assistance from developed countries would be welcome but should not be relied upon.

In a Utopian World, recognizing the urgent need to tackle poverty and inequality, wealthy individuals, corporations, and governments would have taken substantial action to redistribute wealth and create opportunities for the less fortunate. Driven by social responsibility and a commitment to fairness, they would work together to dismantle the power dynamics and economic ideologies perpetuating wealth disparity. As a result, existing social and economic structures would be transformed to promote equity, inclusivity, and shared prosperity. However, for the moment, we live in dystopian times.

The Global South needs to devise new development paradigms that are short-term, cost-effective, locally tailored, and based on indigenous knowledge to address local challenges independent of Western thought processes and templates.

Historically, significant change has always come about through mass awareness, individual and collective action, and not through leaders, governments, or world organizations. Humans in the developing world will have to take matters into their own hands.

Future

What does the future hold?

As per the Laws of Thermodynamics, Entropy results in the disintegration of any system. Energy and Information help fight Entropy.

The Sun, which has lived 50% of its age, will start running out of fuel in the next two billion years. It will expend more energy, become hotter and expand quickly, become a red star, and engulf the Earth.

Much before that, around a hundred million years from today, various tectonic plates and continents will come together, forming a continent called Amasia. If this were to happen, it could threaten human life in its present form.

Rodent-like mammals appeared 200 million years ago; they jumped to Primates, Apes, Chimps, and Hominins, our ancestors just two million years ago. Homo Sapiens came in about 200,000 years ago. The average age of a species is estimated to be 3 to 10 million years.

We have just been born! We are learning fast, and that ignites a beacon of hope.

So the question is, when we think of the future, what timeline do we want to consider?

There will be significant changes on earth in the following 50-100 to 1000-year time scale. Having been forewarned, humankind will use its ingenuity, science, and technology to cope with those changes.

The Global South will improve significantly in the next 25 to 50 years, subject to self-determined innovation, fairer exploitation of natural resources, and adoption of democracy.

Can we think of 100,000- 1 million year time scales?

Yes, definitely.

But not as the present version of Homo Sapiens.

In a hundred years, it will be socially acceptable and scientifically possible to reengineer the human genome, optimize our bodies for the changed environment, and increase our brain power and wisdom.

The ‘Reptilian’ part of our brain makes us self-centered and apathetic.

We no longer need those traits. A connected and collaborative brain aided by technology will expand our powers of collaboration and empathy. We shall all be wiser. That shall be the Golden Age of humanity.

As a life form, we will harness infinite energy and information in the years ahead.